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Aircraft trajectory prediction and aviation safety in ADS-B failure conditions based on neural network Scientific Reports
At the same time, the relative prediction error of Decision Tree and Random Forest is also very small. The dataset of this article comes from the aircraft ADS-B data publicly provided by OpenSky. These volunteers receive ADS-B data from the aircraft and transmit the information to Opensky’s servers. The network transmission/data collection of Opensky is shown in Fig.
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The longitude, latitude, and altitude data of the aircraft are broadcasted through ADS-B. Abnormal data may be generated during transmission and reception, leading to a decrease in the prediction accuracy of the model. In this paper, the threshold method adopted to process abnormal data, the data within the threshold range is retained, and the data outside the threshold is eliminated.
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- Through some simplifying assumptions, the analysis is carried out from the perspective of aircraft force, and Newton’s second law is used to derive dynamic equations.
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- Zhang et al.10 proposed a modified interacting multiple model (M-IMM) to predict the aircraft trajectory.
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To improve the prediction accuracy, this article independently predicts the three-dimensional coordinates, and compares the errors with other prediction methods. This article simulates this situation using Opensky’s ADS-B data. Australia is the first country among the members of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to announce the full adoption of ADS-B for airspace surveillance. The ADS-B information released one after another by the country’s air traffic control department points out that there is discontinuity in the ADS-B track. It can be seen that the FAA has also begun to worry about ADS-B data quality issues.
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But LSTM solves the problem of gradient vanishing of RNN because LSTM introduces a gate mechanism. This mechanism is used to control the circulation and loss of features. Com-pared to the hidden state of the original RNN, LSTM adds a cell state. Tang et al.20 builds a hybrid system model to estimate the 4D trajectory of different types of aircraft based on their flight profiles and dynamic models under different flight conditions. Ren et al.12 proposes a framework for developing and validating trajectory modeling and prediction methods for various types of UAVs in standard and real-world environments.
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Solves the problem that trajectory pre-diction performance is limited by the precision of predefined settings in existing databases. Kang et al.1 used visual sensors to obtain the position and attitude of the air-craft, and then deduced the conventional specific extreme power and an energy maintaining specific power. Finally, these powers were used in the particle dynamics model for trajectory prediction.
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The data in these tasks is data collected at different points in time, reflecting the changing state or degree of something, phenomenon, etc. over time. The general neural network is a fully connected network from the input layer to the hidden layer and then to the input layer. In the case of a CNN network, the data it processes is generally stand-alone, identically distributed (IID). These data are entered individually in a CNN network, and there is no relationship between the previous input and the latter.
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- It can also be seen in the figure that the predicted results based on Bi-LSTM are closest to the actual trajectory.
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- The original data file contains information such as ID, server time, aircraft identifier, latitude and longitude, altitude, and number of receivers.
Similarly, Ma et al.37 combines CNN with LSTM to construct a deep learning hybrid model to predict the 4D trajectory of an aircraft. CNN is used to extract spatial features and LSTM is used to extract temporal features. Traditional trajectory predictors require multiple inputs, such as flight plans, aircraft performance models, weather forecasts. Many of these data are affected by environmental uncertainty. Based on Encoder-Decoder Architecture, Tran et al.41 build a deep learning model using GRU network without requiring aircraft performance and wind di-rection data.
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De Leege et al.23 also use a stepwise regression algorithm to predict the arrival time of an aircraft based on historical data. Lin et al.24 also used historical flight track data as the source of raw data. Using the last flight plan before takeoff, Pang et al.25 proposed a probability aircraft trajectory prediction method based on Bayesian neural network. Wu et al.26 studied an aircraft 4-D trajectory prediction model based on BP network, using the airplane broadcast trajectory from Qingdao to Beijing as the data source.
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